Technology and energy drive imports
Customs figures released Tuesday showed import growth accelerating from September's 31%, far exceeding the 32% increase forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. Exports rose 35.2%, beating the poll's 33.5% forecast but easing from a 36.3% gain in September.
Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, attributed the import surge mainly to purchases of technology-related goods, critical minerals including copper, and energy supplies. CNBC's calculations using official data showed that high-tech imports increased 72% by value from a year earlier. The value of crude oil imports rose about 41%, while liquefied natural gas and coal increased about 50% and 60%, respectively.
With imports gaining pace, October's trade surplus fell to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September, according to customs data. The result was below expectations and, according to LSEG data, the smallest monthly surplus since April.
China nevertheless passed $1 trillion in annual trade surplus for a second consecutive year, reaching that threshold a month earlier than in 2025, Reuters reported. The January-October total of $1.04 trillion compares with a record $1.2 trillion for the whole of 2025.
Overall goods trade also accelerated. The General Administration of Customs reported 20% year-over-year growth in combined imports and exports for January through October, up from 18.8% for the first nine months, according to RTHK.
Export strength contrasts with weak domestic demand
Trading partners have stepped up calls for Beijing to strengthen domestic demand and rebalance its economy. Export growth has allowed policymakers to maintain moderate support while pursuing an annual economic growth target of 4.5%-5%, but household spending remains weak. Retail sales increased just 1.1% in September.
The auto market illustrates that divide. Industry association figures cited by Reuters showed domestic vehicle sales declining year over year for a 12th consecutive month in October, while car exports continued to post solid growth.
Demand for Chinese chips and other artificial intelligence-related hardware accounts for much of the export surge. A slowdown in the global AI buildout could weaken that momentum and put pressure on exporters' margins.
Some indicators already point to softer activity. Capital Economics China economist Nguyen Hoang Nam estimated that exports fell 2% from September on a seasonally adjusted basis. China Beige Book's survey found that new domestic and export orders for goods slowed in October compared with a year earlier. Official purchasing managers' index data also showed an unexpected contraction in factory activity as overseas orders cooled.
US trade rebounds ahead of leaders' meeting
October exports to the United States increased 32.9% by value from a year earlier, while imports from the US rose nearly 35%. China's bilateral surplus came to $32.7 billion.
For January through October, US-bound shipments were up 12.1%. That increase partly reflects comparison with a weak period last year, when shipments plunged 20% amid sharp tariff increases.
In September, Washington and Beijing agreed to prolong their broader trade truce by two months, through January. Other measures included export-control waivers for certain critical minerals and special port fees for each country's vessels.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are expected to hold their third meeting of the year next week at the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen.
Europe's deficit grows as hybrid limits approach
China's October exports to the European Union rose 24.4%, while imports from the bloc declined more than 4%, leaving a $33.4 billion surplus. Over January through October, the surplus with the EU reached $310.7 billion, compared with $241.6 billion a year earlier, according to Chinese customs figures reported by AFP.
The EU and Beijing agreed last month to restrict imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles over the next few years as part of Europe's effort to reduce its trade deficit with China. Those restrictions take effect December 1. Reuters reported that factories were expected to ship vehicles ahead of the deadline, supporting exports in the near term.
Analysts expect the restrictions to do little to contain China's broader export boom. Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US Treasury official, noted that the annual cap of 350,000 cars exceeds the 300,000 hybrids China exported to Europe last year. It is, however, well below the annualized rate of 800,000 vehicles recorded over the past three months.
Setser said Europe remained far from having a coherent trade and industrial policy for autos, much less a coherent economic policy covering its overall trade with China.
