New homes, farther from a livelihood
The government inaugurated Nuevo Bosque in November 2024 on the outskirts of Frontera, Tabasco, 7.5 miles inland. Fifty-one families received matching single-story houses after erosion and storm surges consumed more than half of their old settlement. Celebrated as a climate-justice milestone and an achievement of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration, the move has also exposed shortcomings in planning for life after relocation.
For women who helped bring in the daily catch, distance from the coast has disrupted both work and community life. Their early-morning practice, known as "garrulear," involved helping fishermen unload, obtaining fish for their households and earning extra money. It also gave neighbors a regular opportunity to spend time together.
A taxi ride to the shore and back now costs roughly 240 pesos, or $14, making that daily routine unaffordable. Residents increasingly turn to fast food and sugary drinks sold in the nearby city, while fish has lost its place as a dietary staple. Several residents describe substantial weight gain and worsening health as their lives have become less active.
"We are fishers, we cannot change overnight," one resident said. The separation from the ocean has taken a psychological toll on a community whose identity and livelihood developed around fishing over more than 40 years.
A settlement lost to the sea
El Bosque began in the early 1980s, when landless people from neighboring Veracruz settled on a peninsula dense with mangroves and other vegetation. That landscape inspired its name, which means "the forest."
An advocacy account published by Researching Internal Displacement traces the destruction: the sea claimed the first house in 2017, another 18 by February 2021 and 43 homes by the beginning of 2022. Storm surges had destroyed the school dining hall and a fourth row of houses by the end of 2022. The account estimates that the coastline has retreated by more than 500 meters since 2005.
The damage also interrupted children's education. Residents say students have missed as much as six years of regular schooling since a tidal wave flooded the original school in late 2020.
Schooling remains temporary
Although Nuevo Bosque was presented as a planned, secure resettlement, it opened without running water or a permanent elementary school. Children now study in a narrow, stationary trailer made of laminate panels at the entrance to the neighborhood.
The trailer has no air conditioning. As climate change drives increasingly severe heat waves in Tabasco, the state education department recently instructed schools to end classes by midmorning. The department has promised a permanent school once an appropriate site is found, but the prolonged disruption has left students well behind their peers.
Excluded families seek a legal remedy
Researching Internal Displacement reports that federal authorities left at least 11 El Bosque families out of the 2024 move without explaining why. They still had no homes as of October 2026. Nuestro Futuro, a Mexico City law firm representing the families, argues that they are also officially recognized as climate-displaced people and is pursuing their relocation through legal proceedings.
In July, the firm filed a lawsuit on behalf of fisherman Pablo Cardoza and six other excluded residents. Nuestro Futuro founder Nora Cabrera says the case could reach Mexico's Supreme Court and establish what the state owes communities displaced by climate impacts. Advocates also contend that the government's failure to take preventive steps, including restoring mangroves, amounted to a serious omission.
El Bosque has already figured in international legal proceedings. A May 2025 advisory opinion from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights cited the community's case and affirmed that international law requires states to prevent climate-related forced displacement and fund adaptation. In a separate advisory opinion in July 2025, the International Court of Justice confirmed that governments must regulate private companies to secure rapid reductions in emissions.
Oil production alongside growing climate risks
Tabasco is both highly exposed to climate impacts and one of Mexico's major oil-producing regions. State-owned Pemex operates installations in 80 percent of its municipalities. Its Dos Bocas refinery opened in 2022 about 60 miles west of El Bosque.
The refinery has experienced flooding, fatal fires and oil leaks. People living nearby report respiratory problems, panic attacks, headaches and vomiting. Fossil fuel facilities along the eroding coast pollute local air and water while contributing to the global warming driving sea-level rise.
Mexico ranks among the 20 largest historical contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and, in the International Energy Agency data cited in the reporting, is the world's 11th-largest oil producer. It is also highly vulnerable to climate breakdown.
Climate Central modeling cited in the reporting suggests that, by the end of the century, as much as half of Tabasco could be uninhabitable or highly vulnerable. The state has about 2.5 million residents. Nationally, a World Bank study projects at least 3 million people could be internally displaced by 2050 if current climate trends persist, owing to rising seas, drought, desertification, extreme heat and other sudden- and slow-onset climate disasters.
Relocation commitments await implementation
Mexico's November 2025 climate pledge, its updated Nationally Determined Contribution known as NDC 3.0, addressed loss and damage and made the country's first commitment to develop a National Planned Relocation Program for high-risk communities and settlements. It cited El Bosque to illustrate how climate change is making the loss of habitable land irreversible in some coastal areas. According to Researching Internal Displacement, the program had neither been established nor received a budget as of October 2026.
The country is also developing its first National Adaptation Plan. The National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change began that work in May 2025, supported by $2.8 million from the Green Climate Fund and technical assistance from the Global Green Growth Institute. The process is behind schedule, with publication now expected in 2027.
